Severe Pediatric COVID-19 and Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children From Wild-type to Population Immunity: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study With Real-time Reporting.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution and increasing immunity altered the impact of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection. Public health decision-making relies on accurate and timely reporting of clinical data. METHODS: This international hospital-based multicenter, prospective cohort study with real-time reporting was active from March 2020 to December 2022. We evaluated longitudinal incident rates and risk factors for disease severity. RESULTS: We included 564 hospitalized children with acute COVID-19 (n = 375) or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (n = 189) from the Netherlands, Curaçao and Surinam. In COVID-19, 134/375 patients (36%) needed supplemental oxygen therapy and 35 (9.3%) required intensive care treatment. Age above 12 years and preexisting pulmonary conditions were predictors for severe COVID-19. During omicron, hospitalized children had milder disease. During population immunity, the incidence rate of pediatric COVID-19 infection declined for older children but was stable for children below 1 year. The incidence rate of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children was highest during the delta wave and has decreased rapidly since omicron emerged. Real-time reporting of our data impacted national pediatric SARS-CoV-2 vaccination- and booster-policies. CONCLUSIONS: Our data supports the notion that similar to adults, prior immunity protects against severe sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infections in children. Real-time reporting of accurate and high-quality data is feasible and impacts clinical and public health decision-making. The reporting framework of our consortium is readily accessible for future SARS-CoV-2 waves and other emerging infections.

Neurologic Complications of Rotavirus Infections in Children.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is the leading cause of complicated gastroenteritis in children younger than 5 years in countries where rotavirus vaccination is not implemented as a routine vaccination. Besides the intestinal symptoms that are associated with ordinary gastroenteritis, rotavirus can cause neurological complications. The aim of this study is to describe the clinical characteristics of complicated rotavirus infections. METHODS: From January 1, 2016 to January 31, 2022, all children (below the age of 18 years) with a positive rotavirus test in feces that were either hospitalized or presented at the outpatient clinic or emergency department of a large pediatric hospital in the Netherlands were included. Rotavirus was only tested in case of a severe or abnormal disease course. We described the clinical characteristics and outcomes with a particular focus on neurological manifestations. RESULTS: In total, 59 patients with rotavirus were included of whom 50 (84.7%) were hospitalized and 18 (30.5%) needed intravenous rehydration. Ten patients (16.9%) had neurologic complications, of whom 6 patients (60.0%) presented encephalopathy. Two patients (20.0%) with neurological symptoms showed abnormalities on diagnostic imaging. CONCLUSIONS: Rotavirus can cause gastroenteritis with severe, but apparently self-limiting, neurological manifestations. Considering rotavirus in pediatric patients with neurological symptoms such as encephalopathy and encephalitis is therefore important. Early detection of rotavirus infection may predict a favorable course of the disease and may thereby prevent unnecessary treatment and should be further investigated.

Optimization of ß-Lactam Dosing Regimens in Neonatal Infections: Continuous and Extended Administration versus Intermittent Administration.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In neonates, ß-Lactam antibiotics are almost exclusively administered by intermittent infusion. However, continuous or prolonged infusion may be more beneficial because of the time-dependent antibacterial activity. In this pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic simulation study, we aimed to compare treatment with continuous, extended and intermittent infusion of ß-lactam antibiotics for neonates with infectious diseases. METHODS: We selected population pharmacokinetic models of penicillin G, amoxicillin, flucloxacillin, cefotaxime, ceftazidime and meropenem, and performed a Monte Carlo simulation with 30,000 neonates. Four different dosing regimens were simulated: intermittent infusion in 30 min, prolonged infusion in 4 h, continuous infusion, and continuous infusion with a loading dose. The primary endpoint was 90% probability of target attainment (PTA) for 100% ƒT>MIC during the first 48 h of treatment. RESULTS: For all antibiotics except cefotaxime, continuous infusion with a loading dose resulted in a higher PTA compared with other dosing regimens. Sufficient exposure (PTA >90%) using continuous infusion with a loading dose was reached for amoxicillin (90.3%), penicillin G (PTA 98.4%), flucloxacillin (PTA 94.3%), cefotaxime (PTA 100%), and ceftazidime (PTA 100%). Independent of dosing regimen, higher meropenem (PTA for continuous infusion with a loading dose of 85.5%) doses might be needed to treat severe infections in neonates. Ceftazidime and cefotaxime dose might be unnecessarily high, as even with dose reductions, a PTA > 90% was retained. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous infusion after a loading dose leads to a higher PTA compared with continuous, intermittent or prolonged infusion, and therefore has the potential to improve treatment with ß-lactam antibiotics in neonates.

Increase in Invasive Group a Streptococcal Infections in Children in the Netherlands, A Survey Among 7 Hospitals in 2022.

Following an increase in notifiable invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) infections in the Netherlands, we conducted a survey among 7 hospitals. Pediatric iGAS case numbers were 2-fold higher between July 2021 and June 2022 versus pre-COVID-19. A sharp increase occurred early 2022, most pronounced in <5 years old and for diagnoses empyema and necrotizing fasciitis. This recent pediatric iGAS surge warrants investigation and vigilance.

Effect of lockdowns on the epidemiology of pediatric respiratory disease-A retrospective analysis of the 2021 summer epidemic.

BACKGROUND: The imposition of lockdowns during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 pandemic led to a significant decrease in pediatric care utilization in 2020. After restrictions were loosened, a surge in pediatric respiratory disease was observed in pediatric wards. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the lockdown(s) on the incidence of pediatric respiratory disease. METHODS: For this multicenter retrospective study, emergency department (ED) visit and admission data between January 2017 and September 2021 was collected from eight general hospitals in the Netherlands. Clinical diagnoses were extracted and categorized in groups ("communicable infectious disease," "all respiratory infections," "upper respiratory tract infection," "lower respiratory tract infection," and "asthma/preschool wheezing"). The incidence of admissions and ED visits during 2020 and 2021 was compared to the incidence in 2017-2019. RESULTS: Successive lockdowns resulted in a maximum decrease of 61% and 57% in ED visits and admissions, respectively. After loosening restrictions during the summer of 2021, a 48% overall increase in ED visits and 31% overall increase in admission numbers was observed in July compared to the average July in 2017-2019. This was explained by a 381% increase in ED visits and a 528% increase in ward admissions due to overall respiratory infections, mainly due to lower respiratory tract infections. CONCLUSIONS: Successive lockdowns in the spring and winter of 2020 and 2021 led to a decreased incidence of communicable infections, especially respiratory tract infections. The resulting lack of pediatric immunity resulted in an off-season surge in care utilization at an unexpected moment.

Adverse effect of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic: increased incidence of pediatric crisis admissions due to eating disorders and adolescent intoxications.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries imposed (partial) lockdowns that reduced viral transmission. However, these interventions may have unfavorable effects on emotional and psychological well-being. The aim of this study was to quantify possible adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological wellbeing in children and adolescents. Hospital admission data between January 2017 and September 2021 from eight general hospitals in the Netherlands was collected, comparing the incidences of sub-categorized psychological diagnoses, more specifically eating disorders, intentional intoxications, accidental intoxications, and excessive crying, before (2017-2019) and during the pandemic (2020-2021). Data was summarized per month and per year, and the years 2020 and 2021 were compared to 2017-2019. The relative increase or decrease in diagnoses since the start of the pandemic was calculated. Overall pediatric hospital admissions decreased with 28% since the start of the pandemic. Non-infectious diagnoses showed a decrease of 8%. Of these non-infectious diagnoses, overall psychosocial admissions were increased (+ 9%), mostly caused by an increase in admissions for eating disorders (+ 64%) and intoxications in adolescents (+ 24%). In addition, the proportion of admissions due to psychosocial diagnoses increased post-pandemic (6% vs 4%, p < 0.001). Overall admissions for intoxications in children (- 3%) and excessive crying (- 1%) did not increase, although peaks in incidence were found at the start of the second lockdown. CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, admission rates for eating disorders and intentional intoxications showed a substantial increase, indicating a high burden of pediatric psychiatric diseases. WHAT IS KNOWN: • The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on psychosocial wellbeing in children and adolescents. WHAT IS NEW: • There was an increase in admissions due to psychosocial problems in the Netherlands in the period after the pandemic. • This was mainly caused by an increase in crisis admissions due to eating disorders and intoxications in adolescents.

The impact of lockdown on pediatric ED visits and hospital admissions during the COVID19 pandemic: a multicenter analysis and review of the literature.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has enormous impact on society and healthcare. Countries imposed lockdowns, which were followed by a reduction in care utilization. The aims of this study were to quantify the effects of lockdown on pediatric care in the Netherlands, to elucidate the cause of the observed reduction in pediatric emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions, and to summarize the literature regarding the effects of lockdown on pediatric care worldwide. ED visits and hospital admission data of 8 general hospitals in the Netherlands between January 2016 and June 2020 were summarized per diagnosis group (communicable infections, noncommunicable infections, (probable) infection-related, and noninfectious). The effects of lockdown were quantified with a linear mixed effects model. A literature review regarding the effect of lockdowns on pediatric clinical care was performed. In total, 126,198 ED visits and 47,648 admissions were registered in the study period. The estimated reduction in general pediatric care was 59% and 56% for ED visits and admissions, respectively. The largest reduction was observed for communicable infections (ED visits: 76%; admissions: 77%), whereas the reduction in noninfectious diagnoses was smaller (ED visits 36%; admissions: 37%). Similar reductions were reported worldwide, with decreases of 30-89% for ED visits and 19-73% for admissions.Conclusion: Pediatric ED utilization and hospitalization during lockdown were decreased in the Netherlands and other countries, which can largely be attributed to a decrease in communicable infectious diseases. Care utilization for other conditions was decreased as well, which may indicate that care avoidance during a pandemic is significant. What is Known: • The COVID-19 pandemic had enormous impact on society. • Countries imposed lockdowns to curb transmission rates, which were followed by a reduction in care utilization worldwide. What is New: • The Dutch lockdown caused a significant decrease in pediatric ED utilization and hospitalization, especially in ED visits and hospital admissions because of infections that were not caused by SARS-CoV-2. • Care utilization for noninfectious diagnoses was decreased as well, which may indicate that pediatric care avoidance during a pandemic is significant.

Performance of triage systems in emergency care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the performance of triage systems for identifying high and low-urgency patients in the emergency department (ED). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: EMBASE, Medline OvidSP, Cochrane central, Web of science and CINAHL databases from 1980 to 2016 with the final update in December 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies that evaluated an emergency medical triage system, assessed validity using any reference standard as proxy for true patient urgency and were written in English. Studies conducted in low(er) income countries, based on case scenarios or involving less than 100 patients were excluded. REVIEW METHODS: Reviewers identified studies, extracted data and assessed the quality of the evidence independently and in duplicate. The Quality Assessment of studies of Diagnostic Accuracy included in Systematic Reviews -2 checklist was used to assess risk of bias. Raw data were extracted to create 2×2 tables and calculate sensitivity and specificity. ED patient volume and casemix severity of illness were investigated as determinants of triage systems' performance. RESULTS: Sixty-six eligible studies evaluated 33 different triage systems. Comparisons were restricted to the three triage systems that had at least multiple evaluations using the same reference standard (Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale, Emergency Severity Index and Manchester Triage System). Overall, validity of each triage system to identify high and low-urgency patients was moderate to good, but performance was highly variable. In a subgroup analysis, no clear association was found between ED patient volume or casemix severity of illness and triage systems' performance. CONCLUSIONS: Established triage systems show a reasonable validity for the triage of patients at the ED, but performance varies considerably. Important research questions that remain are what determinants influence triage systems' performance and how the performance of existing triage systems can be improved.

Safety of the Manchester Triage System to Detect Critically Ill Children at the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety of the Manchester Triage System in pediatric emergency care for children who require admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). STUDY DESIGN: Between 2006 and 2013, 50 062 consecutive emergency department visits of children younger than the age of 16 years were included. We determined the percentage of undertriage, defined as the proportion of children admitted to ICU triaged as low urgent according to the Manchester Triage System, and diagnostic performance measures, including sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic OR. Characteristics of undertriaged patients were compared with correctly triaged patients. In a logistic regression model, risk factors for undertriage were determined. RESULTS: In total, 238 (28.7%) of the 830 children admitted to ICU during the study period were undertriaged. Sensitivity of high Manchester Triage System urgency levels to detect ICU admission was 71% (95% CI 68%-74%) and specificity 85% (95% CI 85%-85%). Severity of illness was lower in undertriaged children than correctly triaged children admitted to ICU. Risk factors for undertriage were age <3 months, medical presenting problem, comorbidity, referral by a medical specialist or emergency medical services, and presentation during the evening or night shift. CONCLUSION: The Manchester Triage System misclassifies a substantial number of children who require ICU admission. Modifications targeted at young children and children with a comorbid condition could possibly improve safety of the Manchester Triage System in pediatric emergency care.

Neutrophil CD64 expression is not a useful biomarker for detecting serious bacterial infections in febrile children at the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: CD64 is expressed on the surface membrane of neutrophils (nCD64) in the presence of bacterial infection. Although initial studies in intensive care settings have been promising, only two small, methodologically flawed studies have been performed in feverish children presenting to the emergency department (ED), both of which were showing a moderate diagnostic value of nCD64 to detect a serious bacterial infection (SBI). This study aimed to determine the diagnostic value of nCD64 in children presenting with fever to the ED for detecting SBI. METHODS: In this prospective observational multi-centre study previously healthy children aged 1 month-16 years with fever, presenting to the ED of two hospitals in the Netherlands in 2011-2012 were included. Standardised information on clinical features were collected and nCD64 and CRP were measured routinely. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the discriminative ability to detect SBI (ROC-area) of nCD64 compared with CRP. Diagnostic performance measures including sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios were calculated. RESULTS: In 392 children (45%) with both CRP and nCD64 determined, 52 children (13%) had an SBI. The AUC of the ROC curve for CD64 was 0.62 (95% CI = 0.54-0.70) and 0.75 (95% CI = 0.67-0.83) for CRP. Neither duration of fever nor deviated vital signs influenced the diagnostic performance of nCD64. CONCLUSION: NCD64 expression has poor discriminative value to detect children with an SBI in a general population of febrile children at the ED. It has no superior value compared to CRP in this setting, neither in total nor in sub-populations.

Improving the Manchester Triage System for pediatric emergency care: an international multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: This multicenter study examines the performance of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) after changing discriminators, and with the addition use of abnormal vital sign in patients presenting to pediatric emergency departments (EDs). DESIGN: International multicenter study. SETTINGS: EDs of two hospitals in The Netherlands (2006-2009), one in Portugal (November-December 2010), and one in UK (June-November 2010). PATIENTS: Children (<16 years) triaged with the MTS who presented at the ED. METHODS: Changes to discriminators (MTS 1) and the value of including abnormal vital signs (MTS 2) were studied to test if this would decrease the number of incorrect assignment. Admission to hospital using the new MTS was compared with those in the original MTS. Likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and c-statistics were calculated as measures for performance and compared with the original MTS. To calculate likelihood ratios and DORs, the MTS had to be dichotomized in low urgent and high urgent. RESULTS: 60,375 patients were included, of whom 13% were admitted. When MTS 1 was used, admission to hospital increased from 25% to 29% for MTS 'very urgent' patients and remained similar in lower MTS urgency levels. The diagnostic odds ratio improved from 4.8 (95%CI 4.5-5.1) to 6.2 (95%CI 5.9-6.6) and the c-statistic remained 0.74. MTS 2 did not improve the performance of the MTS. CONCLUSIONS: MTS 1 performed slightly better than the original MTS. The use of vital signs (MTS 2) did not improve the MTS performance.

Accuracy of triage for children with chronic illness and infectious symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: This prospective observational study aimed to assess the validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) for children with chronic illnesses who presented to the emergency department (ED) with infectious symptoms. METHODS: Children (<16 years old) presenting to the ED of a university hospital between 2008 and 2011 with dyspnea, diarrhea/vomiting, or fever were included. Chronic illness was classified on the basis of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, codes. The validity of the MTS was assessed by comparing the urgency categories of the MTS with an independent reference standard on the basis of abnormal vital signs, life-threatening working diagnosis, resource utilization, and follow-up. Overtriage, undertriage, and correct triage were calculated for children with and without a chronic illness. The performance was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios, which were calculated by dichotomizing the MTS into high and low urgency. RESULTS: Of the 8592 children who presented to the ED with infectious symptoms, 2960 (35%) had a chronic illness. Undertriage occurred in 16% of children with chronic illnesses and in 11% of children without chronic illnesses (P < .001). Sensitivity of the MTS for children with chronic illnesses was 58% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 53%-62%) and was 74% (95% CI: 70%-78%) for children without chronic illnesses. There was no difference in specificity between the 2 groups. The diagnostic odds ratios for children with and without chronic illnesses were 4.8 (95% CI: 3.9-5.9) and 8.7 (95% CI: 7.1-11), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In children presenting with infectious symptoms, the performance of the MTS was lower for children with chronic illnesses than for children without chronic illnesses. Nurses should be particularly aware of undertriage in children with chronic illnesses.

Clinical prediction model to aid emergency doctors managing febrile children at risk of serious bacterial infections: diagnostic study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive, cross validate, and externally validate a clinical prediction model that assesses the risks of different serious bacterial infections in children with fever at the emergency department. DESIGN: Prospective observational diagnostic study. SETTING: Three paediatric emergency care units: two in the Netherlands and one in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Children with fever, aged 1 month to 15 years, at three paediatric emergency care units: Rotterdam (n=1750) and the Hague (n=967), the Netherlands, and Coventry (n=487), United Kingdom. A prediction model was constructed using multivariable polytomous logistic regression analysis and included the predefined predictor variables age, duration of fever, tachycardia, temperature, tachypnoea, ill appearance, chest wall retractions, prolonged capillary refill time (>3 seconds), oxygen saturation <94%, and C reactive protein. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pneumonia, other serious bacterial infections (SBIs, including septicaemia/meningitis, urinary tract infections, and others), and no SBIs. RESULTS: Oxygen saturation <94% and presence of tachypnoea were important predictors of pneumonia. A raised C reactive protein level predicted the presence of both pneumonia and other SBIs, whereas chest wall retractions and oxygen saturation <94% were useful to rule out the presence of other SBIs. Discriminative ability (C statistic) to predict pneumonia was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.88); for other SBIs this was even better: 0.86 (0.79 to 0.92). Risk thresholds of 10% or more were useful to identify children with serious bacterial infections; risk thresholds less than 2.5% were useful to rule out the presence of serious bacterial infections. External validation showed good discrimination for the prediction of pneumonia (0.81, 0.69 to 0.93); discriminative ability for the prediction of other SBIs was lower (0.69, 0.53 to 0.86). CONCLUSION: A validated prediction model, including clinical signs, symptoms, and C reactive protein level, was useful for estimating the likelihood of pneumonia and other SBIs in children with fever, such as septicaemia/meningitis and urinary tract infections.

Alarming signs in the Manchester triage system: a tool to identify febrile children at risk of hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the flowcharts and discriminators of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) can be used as indicators of alarming signs of serious febrile illness to predict the risk of hospitalization for febrile children who present at the emergency department (ED). STUDY DESIGN: Observational study, which included 2455 children (<16 years) who came to the ED of a university hospital with fever as their main complaint (May 2007-July 2009). Alarming signs for serious febrile illness were matched with MTS flowcharts and discriminators. At triage, the percentage of alarming signs positive was calculated. The diagnostic ability of the percentage of alarming signs positive to identify children at risk of hospitalization was assessed by calculating positive and negative likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Thirty percent of children had at least 1 alarming sign positive at triage. Twenty-three percent were hospitalized. Positive likelihood ratios of hospitalization were 5.0 (95% CI: 3.9-6.5) for children with >20% of alarming signs positive at triage and 12.0 (95% CI: 5.2-27.6) for those with >40% of alarming signs positive. Negative likelihood ratios were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.8-0.8) and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.9-1.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: By alternatively using the flowcharts and discriminators of the MTS as alarming signs, rather than urgency classifiers, the MTS can function as a simple, readily available tool to identify febrile children at risk of hospitalization early in the care process. This knowledge may help to improve ED throughput times as well as admission and discharge management at pediatric EDs.

Self-referral and serious illness in children with fever.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to evaluate parents' capability to assess their febrile child's severity of illness and decision to present to the emergency department. We compared children referred by a general practitioner (GP) with those self-referred on the basis of illness-severity markers. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional observational study conducted at the emergency departments of a university and a teaching hospital. GP-referred or self-referred children with fever (aged <16 years) who presented to the emergency department (2006-2008) were included. Markers for severity of illness were urgency according to the Manchester Triage System, diagnostic interventions, therapeutic interventions, and follow-up. Associations between markers and referral type were assessed by using logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with the most common presenting problems that accompanied the fever (ie, dyspnea, gastrointestinal complaints, neurologic symptoms, fever without specific symptoms). RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent of 4609 children were referred by their GP and 62% were self-referred. GP-referred children were classified as high urgency (immediate/very urgent categories) in 46% of the cases and self-referrals in 45%. Forty-three percent of GP referrals versus 27% of self-referrals needed extensive diagnostic intervention, intravenous medication/aerosol treatment, hospitalization, or a combination of these (odds ratio: 2.0 [95% confidence interval: 1.75-2.27]). In all subgroups, high urgency was not associated with referral type. GP-referred and self-referred children with dyspnea had similar frequencies of illness-severity markers. CONCLUSIONS: Although febrile self-referred children were less severely ill than GP-referred children, many parents properly judged and acted on the severity of their child's illness. To avoid delayed or missed diagnoses, recommendations regarding interventions that would discourage self-referral to the emergency department should be reconsidered.

The Manchester triage system: improvements for paediatric emergency care.

OBJECTIVE: To improve the Manchester Triage System (MTS) in paediatric emergency care. METHODS: The authors performed a prospective observational study at the emergency departments of a university and teaching hospital in The Netherlands and included children attending in 2007 and 2008. The authors developed and implemented specific age-dependent modifications for the MTS, based on patient groups where the system's performance was low. Nurses applied the modified system in 11,481 (84%) patients. The reference standard for urgency defined five levels based on a combination of vital signs at presentation, potentially life-threatening conditions, diagnostic resources, therapeutic interventions and follow-up. The reference standard for urgency was previously defined and available in 11,260/11,481 (96%) patients. RESULTS: Compared with the original MTS specificity improved from 79% (95% CI 79% to 80%) to 87% (95% CI 86% to 87%) while sensitivity remained similar ((63%, 95% CI 59% to 66%) vs (64%, 95% CI 60% to 68%)). The diagnostic OR increased (4.1 vs 11). CONCLUSIONS: Modifications of the MTS for paediatric emergency care resulted in an improved specificity while sensitivity remained unchanged. Further research should focus on the improvement of sensitivity.

Referral of nonurgent children from the emergency department to general practice: compliance and cost savings.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate compliance and costs of referral of nonurgent children, who present at the emergency department, to the general practitioner cooperative (GPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a prospective observational before-after study, during 6 months in 2008, the triage nurse discussed referral to the GPC with parents, when self-referred children with a nontraumatic problem, aged 3 months-16 years were triaged as nonurgent (levels 4 and 5) according to the Manchester Triage System. A telephone follow-up was performed 2-4 days after referral. Real costs were calculated for emergency department consultation (preintervention period) and GPC referral (postintervention period). Compliance of referral was studied for 4 days a week. RESULTS: One hundred and forty patients were referred to the GPC, of which 101 out of 140 patients (72%) attended a follow-up. After discharge seven patients (7%) had an unscheduled revisit. No patients were subsequently hospitalized. In total 275 patients were included to study compliance, with 28 (10%) reported missing. Ninety-five out of 247 (38%) patients were referred to the general practitioner and 46 out of 247 parents (19%) refused referral. For 106 out of 247 patients (43%) referral was not initiated by the nurse mainly because of comorbidity. Mean costs per patient were €106 for the preintervention period and €101 for the postintervention period. CONCLUSION: Compliance of referring low urgent patients is low, mainly because it was difficult for nursing staff to refer. Total overall cost benefit is minimal. Cost savings may be achieved in different settings, where general practitioner services are colocated and where large numbers can be referred.

Can urgency classification of the Manchester triage system predict serious bacterial infections in febrile children?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the discriminative ability of the Manchester triage system (MTS) to identify serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children with fever in the emergency department (ED) and to study the association between predictors of SBI and discriminators of MTS urgency of care. METHODS: This prospective observational study included 1255 children with fever (1 month-16 years) attending the ED of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands in 2008-9. Triage urgency was determined with the MTS (urgency (U) level 1-5). The relationship between triage urgency and SBI was assessed with multivariable logistic regression, including effects of age, sex and temperature. Discriminative ability was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: SBI prevalence was 11% (n=131, 95% CI 9% to 12%). The discriminative value of the MTS for predicting SBI was 0.57 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.62), and the MTS did not contribute to a model including age, sex and temperature. The sensitivity of the MTS (U1-2 vs U3-5) to detect SBI was 0.42 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.51) and specificity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.72). MTS high urgency discriminators include several known predictors of SBI, such as fever, work of breathing, meningism and oxygen saturation, but apply to non-SBI children as well. CONCLUSION: The MTS has poor discriminative ability to predict the presence of SBIs in children presenting with fever to the paediatric ED. Important predictors of SBI are represented within the MTS, but are used in a different way to classify urgency.

Safety of the Manchester Triage System to identify less urgent patients in paediatric emergence care: a prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess hospitalisation rate as a proxy for the ability of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) to identify less urgent paediatric patients. We also evaluated general practitioner (GP) services to determine if they met patients' needs compared to emergency department care. METHODS: Self-referred children triaged as less urgent by the MTS in two emergency departments in the Netherlands were included in a prospective observational study. Therapeutic interventions during emergency department consultation, hospitalisation after consultation and determinants for hospitalisation were assessed using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: During emergency department consultation, extensive therapeutic interventions were performed more often in patients with extremity problems (n=175, 19%) and dyspnoea (n=30, 15%). 191 (3.5%) of 5425 patients were hospitalised. Age and presenting problem remained statistically significant in multivariable logistic analysis, predicting hospitalisation with ORs of 3.0 (95% CI 2.2 to 4.1) for age <1 year, 2.5 (1.5 to 4.1) for dyspnoea, 3.5 (2.5 to 4.9) for gastrointestinal problems and 2.8 (1.1 to 7.2) for patients with fever without identified source compared to all other patients. 3975 (76%) of 5234 patients were contacted for follow-up after discharge. Six (0.15%) patients were hospitalised after emergency department discharge. CONCLUSION: In the MTS less urgent categories, overall hospitalisation is low, although children <1 year of age or with dyspnoea, gastrointestinal problems or fever without identified source have an increased risk for hospitalisation. Except for these patient groups, the MTS identifies less urgent patients safely. It may not be optimal for GP services to treat patients with extremity problems.

Validity of telephone and physical triage in emergency care: the Netherlands Triage System.

BACKGROUND: Due to emergency care overcrowding, right care at the right place and time is necessary. Uniform triage of patients contacting different emergency care settings will improve quality of care and communication between health care providers. OBJECTIVE: Validation of the computer-based Netherlands Triage System (NTS) developed for physical triage at emergency departments (EDs) and telephone triage at general practitioner cooperatives (GPCs). METHODS: Prospective observational study with patients attending the ED of a university-affiliated hospital (September 2008 to November 2008) or contacting an urban GPC (December 2008 to February 2009). For validation of the NTS, we defined surrogate urgency markers as best proxies for true urgency. For physical triage (ED): resource use, hospitalization and follow-up. For telephone triage (GPC): referral to ED, self-care advice after telephone consultation or GP advice after physical consultation. Associations between NTS urgency levels and surrogate urgency markers were evaluated using chi-square tests for trend. RESULTS: We included nearly 10 000 patients. For physical triage at ED, NTS urgency levels were associated with resource use, hospitalization and follow-up. For telephone triage at GPC, trends towards more ED referrals in high NTS urgency levels and more self-care advices after telephone consultation in lower NTS urgency levels were found. The association between NTS urgency classification and GP advice was less explicit. Similar results were found for children; however, we found no association between NTS urgency level and GP advice. CONCLUSIONS: Physically and telephone-assigned NTS urgency levels were associated with majority of surrogate urgency markers. The NTS as single triage system for physical and telephone triage seems feasible.